While in NYC on October 6, I took a stroll around the crater that had been the WTC. It was late in the day and a river of sullen faces poured against me from the financial district. Once inside the World Financial Center, I saw various televisions discussing the record 800+ point intraday drop in the DJIA. By the end of the week, both the Dow and S&P 500 had been amputated by more than 18%.
The next day, I read in a major news publication that "economists believe there is an 89% chance that we are moving into a recession". It was not clear to me if the vast majority of economists thought we had something less than 100% chance of a recession or some economists flat out thought there was no recession in sight. Statistics are tricky things and once a journalist gets them in their clutches... look out.
I searched for the article so that I could speak more precisely here, but instead came upon this piece by Michael Donnelly that more than summed up my thoughts on the topic. I can't vouch for the accuracy of his analysis. But I like his style, especially where he calls one of the participants in the panel "either ignorant or willfully blind". Here's a link to Michael's piece. Be forwarned, there are graphs and numbers and such.
http://pbp.typepad.com/economy/2008/10/89-of-economists-think-were-in-a-recession.html
Honestly, I would like to sit down and have a double bourbon with one of these 11% folks because I think it would give an extra shot of optimism to my evening.
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Life is to be enjoyed. Since the greatest pleasures are derived through simple means, it makes sense to strive for a simple life. In that spirit, I propose to share what has been learned, as well as explore new avenues toward simplicity, frugality, and peaceful enjoyment.
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